BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, May 2, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (5/2) in North and Central CA waves were waist to maybe chest high and warbled but with fairly clean surface conditions and mushed. Protected breaks were chest high and pretty warbled and ill formed and mushed. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and very soft but clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high on the sets and reasonably lined up with good form and clean but soft. Central Orange County had waves at waist high plus on the sets and weakly lined up and clean with decent form but soft and weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had a few waves at waist high with some decent form and clean but very weak. North San Diego had waves at waist high on the sets and somewhat lined up and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had waves at waist to rarely chest high on the sets and somewhat lined up with decent form and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (5/2) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California other than raw locally generated windswell. Of interest is swell propagating north originating from a small gale that developed in the Central South Pacific Sun-Tues (4/30) producing up to 36 ft seas over a modest sized area aimed well northeast. Swell is pushing towards South and Central America and the US West Coast. And another gale developed south of New Zealand Wed-Thurs (5/2) producing 33 ft seas aimed northeast and is expected to continue into early Fri (5/3) with 28-29 ft seas aimed northeast. Small swell is expected to result. And another gale is forecast tracking east under New Zealand Mon-Tues (5/7) with 38 ft seas aimed east-northeast and possibly another behind that. So there is some hope.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (5/2) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California other than locally generating northwest windswell.

Over the next 72 hours another weak gale was developing while tracking east off Kamchatka on Thurs AM (5/2) with 35 kts west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 48N 165.75E aimed east. In the evening west winds to hold at 35 kts with seas 25 ft at 47.75N 171.5E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading Fri AM (5/3) while building in coverage at 30 kts from the west with seas 24 ft at 48.5N 178.75E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts with seas 21 ft at 49N 176.5W aimed east. Perhaps another small pulse of swell to result for Hawaii and possibly the US West Coast.

Kamchatka Gale
A gale developed off Kamchatka on Tues AM (4/30) producing 35-40 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 50.75N 169.75E aimed east just south of the Western Aleutians. The gale was fading in the evening with 30-35 kts west winds and seas fading from 22 ft at 50N 172.25E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (5/1) fetch is to be fading from 25 kts with seas fading from 19 ft at 49.75N 176E aimed southeast and over the North Dateline Region. The gale was gone after that. Maybe some background swell for the North Shores of Hawaiian Islands.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival later on Sat (5/4) building to 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) late. Swell fading Sun (5/5) from 2.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 22, 25, 19 and 10 inches all on Sat-Sun (5/5). These number seems way on the high side.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 9-10,000 ft today holding through 5/3 then falling fast to 3.500 ft 5/4-5/5 then rising fast back to 7,000 ft on 5/6 building to 8,500 ft 5/7 rising to 10,000 ft 5/10 and beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thurs AM (5/2) the southern branch of the jet was lifting north under New Zealand with winds 160 kts forming a trough offering good support for gale development there. East of there the jet was pushing south running east on 70S latitude line pushing the rest of the way across the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours the trough under New Zealand is to mostly fade out by later Fri (5/3) offering nothing while the ridge in the east only builds strong pushing into Antarctica offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours yet another trough is forecast building under New Zealand on Sun (5/5) with winds feeding it to building to 170 kts offering good support for gale formation while pushing east into Mon (5/6). in the same area southwest of New Zealand on Sat-Sun (5/5) with 170 kts winds supporting gale formation pushing well east into Mon (5/6). And yet another but weaker trough is forecast for the same area on Tues (5/7) being fed by 110 kts winds offering more potential for gale formation. In all, a decent New Zealand based pattern looks possible.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday AM (5/2) swell originating from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific was radiating north and northeast (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be developing associated with a gale south of New Zealand (see New Zealand Gale below)

Central South Pacific Gale
A gale started developing in the Central South Pacific on Sun AM (4/28) with 50 kt south winds and seas building from 27 ft at 57.25S 175.25W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was producing 55 kt south winds with seas building to 35 ft over a small area at 54.5S 162W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/29) the gale was tracking northeast with south-southwest winds at 45-50 kts and seas 36 ft at 51.75S 153W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading in coverage at 40-45 kts while lifting northeast with seas 35 ft at 49S 147.75W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Tues AM (4/30) from 30-35 kts from the south with seas 27 ft at 42.75S 143.75W aimed well northeast. Fetch fading over the Southeast Pacific in the evening from 30 kts with seas 23 ft at 40S 140W aimed north. Swell is tracking north and northeast.

Oahu: Expect tiny sideband swell to reach Oahu on Sun (5/5) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (5/6) at 1.4 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft) and holding. Swell fading on Tues AM (5/7) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 179 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/7) building to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (5/8) at 1.9 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (5/9) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (5/10) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (5/11) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198-202 degrees and partially shadowed by French Polynesia.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/7) building to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (5/8) at 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (2.5-3.0 ft) with much local northwest windswell interacting with it. Swell fading some on Thurs (5/9) from 1.7 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5 ft) with the same windswell problem. Residuals on Fri (5/10) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft) with no windswell issues. Dribbles on Sat (5/11) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197-201 degrees and partially shadowed by French Polynesia.

New Zealand Gale
On Tues PM (4/30) a gale started building southwest of New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 61.75S 150.75E aimed east-northeast. Fetch was building while lifting east-northeast Wed AM (5/1) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 58.75S 159.5E aimed east-northeast. Fetch continued lifting northeast in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 54.75S 167.25E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/2) southwest winds built in coverage at 35-40 kts aimed well northeast with seas 29 ft at 55S 171E aimed well northeast. South to southwest fetch is to fade in the evening from 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 54.5S 179.75W aimed north-northeast at Hawaii and the US West Coast. Northeast fetch fading Fri AM (5/3) from 30-35 ks with seas 26 ft at 51.5S 174W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Winter is over.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another stronger gale is forecast developing south of Tasmania Mon PM (5/6) tracking east with 50 kt southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 58.75S 142.25E aimed east. On Tues AM (5/7) fetch is to be fading from 45-50 kts with seas 36 ft at 56S 159E aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 32 ft at 54S 170.25E aimed northeast. Fetch holds Wed Am (5/8) at 40 kts with seas 32 ft at 54.75S 179E aimed northeast. The gale to fade after that. Something to monitor.

And yet another gale is forecast developing southwest of New Zealand on Thurs (5/9) with 32 ft seas at 58S 165E aimed northeast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Building
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/1) 5 day average winds were from the east at strong strength over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/2) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies are to start fading from the west on 5/3 with west anomalies moving into the far West KWGA 5/4 building east at moderate status and filling the KWGA by 5/12 through the end of the mode run on 5/18.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/2) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was all but gone reaching east to 160E with the 29 degree isotherm backtracking west to 169W. The 28 deg isotherm line was gone east of 140W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were at +1 degs over the equatorial Pacific but mostly compressed to the surface (25-30m deep) in the east and building down to 150m deep in the west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -4 degs were down at 120m deep between 110W-175W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador basically filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/28 indicates cold water was in control from Ecuador west to 130W at the surface and at depth west to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 140W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/28) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms east of 160W with a pocket at -15 cms near the Galapagos. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/28) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific at -0.5 to -2.0 degs from Ecuador to 160W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/1) The latest images depict a moderate warm pool from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline and beyond but with a well developed cool stream running west directly on the equator from Ecuador reaching west to 135W. But there is still a solid El Nino signal present at the surface with the exception of a cold La Nina signal.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/1): Water temps were crashing hard on the equator from the Galapagos to 135W centered at 120W. A neutral pattern was present everywhere else near the equator.
Hi-res Overview: (5/1) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from just west of the Galapagos to the dateline with a cool stream poking through it extending west from the coast of Ecuador to 140W. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina stream.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/2) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising some at +0.184 degrees after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/2) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +0.382 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST are steadily falling at +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.15 March.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is +1.50 JFM, 1.79 for DJF and +1.95 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.92 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb then down to +1.0 degs mid-April.
Forecast (5/2) - Temps to fall to 0.0 late-May and -1.75 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.45 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.407 degs today and its the 12th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.036 in May (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.927 in Oct and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.075 in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.927 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/2) the Daily Index was rising some at -0.52 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20/24 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6/24 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising some at -5.45, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at -6.56. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24, then falling to -1.57 in March). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table